Analysis of European Air Traffic Affected by Closing Ukrainian Airspace During the War

The war in Ukraine caused the closing of Ukrainian airspace since February 22, 2022, for any civilian use. Airspaces of Belarus and the Russian Federation are in limited use due to sanctions and the high risk of missile action. The geometry of limited-to-use airspace is big enough to provide significant influence on civil air transportation in the continent. Non-stop flights between multiple airports have to use very non-efficient trajectories to avoid entering risky airspace. In the paper, we analyze real air traffic data in the airspaces of neighboring countries to Ukraine to find trajectories affected by closing airspace. Airplane trajectory data has been obtained by Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast technology. We compare real airplane trajectories with the shortest path to estimate losses of the Ukrainian air navigation service provider and the impact of additional flights into air traffic flows in neighboring flight regions to Ukraine.