Estimation of Mid-Air Collision Risk Based on ADS-B Trajectory Data

@InProceedings{10.1007/978-3-031-91992-3_20, author="Ivashchuk, Oleg and Ostroumov, Ivan", editor="Ostroumov, Ivan and Marais, Karen and Zaliskyi, Maksym", title="Estimation of Mid-Air Collision Risk Based on ADS-B Trajectory Data", booktitle="Advances in Civil Aviation Systems Development", year="2025", publisher="Springer Nature Switzerland", address="Cham", pages="305--318", abstract="Civil aviation is grounded on ensuring the same safety level for each airspace user. The fast-growing market of air transportation requires to search for reliable methods of increasing capacity of airspace within the same volume. Increasing number of airspace users needs improving performance of navigation and accuracy of surveillance equipment. In this paper, we consider particular airspace safety analysis based on risk of mid-air collision estimated with the help of trajectory data transferred by Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) technology. Coordinates of airspace users received under ADS-B could be used to identify each airplanes deviations from preplanned trajectory and processed with a statistical assessment tool to recover a model of airplane fluctuation along a flight path. Recovered model utilized errors in flight technique and navigation sensor used on board. Univariate generalizer error distribution is used to estimate probability of airplane deviations out of safety perils. Risk of a mid-air collision is estimated by each pair of airspace users with data visualization in a hierarchical hexagonal spatial indexing system. Airspace of Poland has been considered as an example of safety analysis.", isbn="978-3-031-91992-3" }