An Air Traffic Safety Management Based on Probabilities

Safety analysis is a key element of current air transportation system. In the paper, we propose an approach for real-time estimation of safety level of air traffic within investigated airspace volume. This approach is based on getting probability density function of airspace users deviations from flight route based on statistical analysis of previous realizations of same flight and taking into account uncertainty of location introduced by on-board positioning sensor. Statistical analysis of user deviations from air traffic route is performed with a help of Triple Univariate Generalized Error Distribution to take into account differences in levels of positioning system errors, flight technical error, and rare events. The probability distribution of user deviations is estimated for investigated airspace volume based on surveillance data extracted from digital messages transmitted by on-board transponders of 1090ES mode under Automatic Dependent Surveillance-broadcast technology.