Estimation the Risk of Airplane Separation Lost by Statistical Data Processing of Lateral Deviations

A risk of airplane separation lost is one of the key elements in aviation safety level estimation. In the paper, we consider a method of real-time risk estimation for a particular volume of airspace. Coordinates of airspace users' locations are compared with flight routes network in order to estimate lateral deviation. Surveillance data is obtained from digital messages transmitted in Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast mode. Statistical analysis of deviations of all airspace users accumulated in time includes probability density function fitting. Double Univariate Generalized Error Distribution (DUGED) is used as a model to describe airplane lateral deviations. The risk of airplane separation lost in the lateral plane is considered as an area under DUGED limited to separation minimum. Maximum Likelihood Method is used in a fitting procedure. As an example, a proposed method is used for risk estimation for Ukrainian airspace volume